Gold is trading around $4,175 after reacting from the lower support area near the monthly low. The short-term price action is showing signs of a corrective recovery, but the broader structure is still under pressure as price remains below the descending trendline and below the main OB sell zone.

From an SMC perspective, gold has already broken the previous bullish structure and formed a clear CHoCH to the downside. The recent rebound can be viewed as a pullback after a strong bearish leg, not a confirmed bullish reversal yet. As long as price stays below the $4,530–$4,550 OB sell zone, sellers may continue to defend the higher liquidity areas.

For next week, the main scenario is that gold may recover first toward $4,269, then possibly $4,386 if buyers maintain short-term momentum. However, these upper zones are also where liquidity and sell pressure may appear again. The key area to watch is the OB sell zone around $4,530–$4,550, which aligns with the descending trendline and remains the strongest reaction zone on the chart.

Buy setup

Condition:
Gold holds above the monthly low area and forms bullish continuation on lower timeframe. A short-term buy is only valid as a recovery trade, not a full trend reversal.

Entry: $4,100–$4,120 after bullish confirmation
SL: below $3,943
TP1: $4,269
TP2: $4,386
TP3: $4,530–$4,550

Sell setup 1

Condition:
Gold recovers into the $4,269–$4,386 liquidity area and shows bearish rejection with lower timeframe MSS / CHOCH.

Entry: $4,269–$4,386 after rejection
SL: above $4,420
TP1: $4,102
TP2: $3,943
TP3: $3,889

Sell setup 2

Condition:
If gold continues higher into the OB sell zone around $4,530–$4,550 and rejects from the descending trendline, the main bearish continuation setup becomes stronger.

Entry: $4,530–$4,550 after bearish rejection
SL: above $4,620
TP1: $4,386
TP2: $4,102
TP3: $3,889
TP4: $3,720–$3,760

Key levels

Current price area: $4,175
Short-term resistance: $4,269
Buy-side liquidity: $4,386
Main OB sell zone: $4,530–$4,550
Higher buy-side liquidity: $4,777
Strong liquidity: $4,895
Monthly low area: $3,943
Strong lower liquidity: $3,889
Major demand zone: $3,720–$3,760
Bearish continuation confirmation: rejection below $4,530–$4,550
Bullish recovery confirmation: clean break above $4,386
Bearish invalidation: clean daily close above $4,550

My current view is that gold may have a recovery pullback next week, but the main trend is not fully bullish yet. The Prime Gold plan is to avoid selling too low and wait for price to recover into liquidity or the OB sell zone before looking for bearish confirmation. If the market holds above the monthly low, a short-term recovery toward $4,269–$4,386 is possible before the next major decision zone.

No confirmation, no trade.